https://cha4mot.com/works/ctech_2x.html
as of January 20, 1998
Copyright © 1986, 1995, 1996 by James E. Cook
| Computer Technology Progress Rates | (Revisited ten years later) |
D |
TECHNOLOGY |
UNITS |
1986 |
DOUBLE |
PREDICTED |
e |
|
/yr |
VALUE |
LIFE |
Jan. 1996 |
ACTUAL |
%/yr |
||
36% |
Computer Memory Density | Mega-bits/chip |
2 |
2 years |
64 |
||
36% |
Computer Chip Density | Gate equivalents |
5 • 105 |
2 years |
16 • 106 |
||
29% |
Computer Chip Speed | Mega-hertz clock rate |
10 |
2 ½ years |
160 |
||
48% |
Computer Chip Power | Mega-instructions/sec |
2 |
1 ½ years |
200 |
||
29% |
Magnetic Linear Density | Bits/inch |
2 • 104 |
2 ½ years |
32 • 104 |
||
20% |
Magnetic Radial Density | Tracks/inch |
1,000 |
3 ½ years |
7,000 |
||
48% |
Magnetic Area Density | Mega-bits/inch2 |
10 |
1 ½ years |
1,000 |
||
36% |
Fiber Optics Capacity | Bits/sec |
1 • 108 |
2 years |
32 • 108 |
||
36% |
Fiber Optics Distance | Kilometers w/o repeater |
50 |
2 years |
1,600 |
||
72% |
Fiber Optics Performance | Tera-bit meters/sec |
1 |
1 year |
1,000 |
||
Notes: |
VALUE is highest performance readily commercially available on a moderate to large scale. |
| DOUBLE-LIFE is the time it takes for double the VALUE to appear on the market. | |
| Area VALUEs not necessarily the product because limits do not necessarily coexist independently. | |
| The cost half-life (time to halve) is, perhaps, 5 years. | |
| e
(i.e., prediction error) % / yr is computed as: (( month of arrival of PREDICTED ) - Jan 1996 ) * 100 % / (( 10 years ) * ( 12 months / yr )) . |
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https://cha4mot.com/works/ctech_2x.html
as of January 20, 1998 Copyright © 1986, 1995, 1996 by James E. Cook |
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